The Micros: Episode 4 - Heads Up 4 Röfls

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

The Micros are back with a fourth episode... Heads Up 4 Röfls.


And here's a special treat for April Fools Day...


Long live Gobbo.

Thursday 4:20 Nugs: Phil Ivey Schwasted, FT/Station Tag Team, Gus Hansen Diddling Danish Dish, and More Keno Scandals

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA


It's 4:20pm and a perfect time for this heady selection of poker newsy items of note on the last day of March and the first day of the baseball season. The biggest waves are being made by the epic 2+2 column starring Phil Ivey. Enjoy that along with these other nuggets...
Photography: Flipchip took photos of the Las Vegas Strip when the lights went out for Earth Hour. (LasVegasVegas)

Poker Legislation: Full Tilt Poker and Station Casinos are teaming up. It's never official until it turns up in the Journal, right? Web Poker Plays New Hand: Casino Owners Team Up With Online Gaming Site to Legalize Internet Gambling. (Wall Street Journal)

Life of Ivey: This is in the running for "thread of the year"... Phil Ivey Wasted will go down in history as another epic, legendary, hysterical photoshop thread. (2+2)

WSOP History: Shamus waxes about a bit about Trivial Pursuit and the 1997 WSOP Main Event. (Hard-Boiled Poker)

Cheaters: I love a good Keno scandal. Kim breaks down the Betsoft Keno Scandal. (Infinite Gaming Edge)

Gossip: Los Hombres have photos of Gus Hansen's latest Danish girlfriend. (Wicked Chops Poker)

Music: Need some music to help kick-start the day? My buddy Jonas published the latest batch of Background Beats. The latest mix is the Good Morning Edition. Perfect music to listen to when working out, riding the subway to work, stuck in traffic, still up late grinding away at the virtual tables... or in my case, early morning writing music. (Coventry)
That's it. You know the drill. NGTFOOMO.

Sweating Sachin Tendulkar

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

As a kid, I honed my skills in the South Riverdale Baseball League. I was no where as good as my brother, who would someday become renown as one of the best pitchers in SRBL history. Many of our games were played a couple of miles from Yankee Stadium in Van Cortlandt Park, a sprawling 30,000 acres in the Bronx that was also the location of a Revolutionary War battle.

Van Cortlandt Park also happened to be where I first saw cricket players. I immediately noticed the funny wooden bats and became entranced at the odd piece of equipment. The handle seemed the same, but the shaft of the bat looked more like a massive wooden butter knife when compared traditional scuffed aluminum bat that I had slung over my shoulder and carried everywhere.


Image: Calvin Wilson

When I inquired about cricket, my father explained that the British invented cricket but Abner Doubleday tweaked the game and invented baseball -- the same game that I loved and played as much as possible when I was ten years old.

Doubleday was a name I knew well, because of Doubleday's, a two-story pub where my parents and their friends often consumed copious amounts of spirits, especially after little league games because the pub was conveniently located across the street from the baseball diamonds in Van Cortlandt Park. My world view was rather narrow considering it was the late 1970s during those halcyon days before cable TV and the internet, so I innocently assumed that Abner Doubleday was a former owner of the pub (hence its name) and I created this back story inside my head that Abner Doubleday had to close the pub on Sundays because we were all Catholic. All the neighborhood drunks had nothing to do once church let out and without a bar to waste away in, Doubleday gathered everyone across the street in the park and taught them how to play baseball while they hid kegs in the woods. Thus, Abner double day invented baseball and the South Little League Baseball was born, and eventually, Babe Ruth built Yankee Stadium and the across the street candy story got these awesome new chocolate called Reggie Bars.

Cricket requires a significant amount of space and that's exactly what Van Cortlandt Park offered for its players. The local league was dominated by immigrants from the West Indies and the Caribbean. Many of them grew up playing cricket (but sadly their children would assimilate into American sports and ditch the cricket bat for a baseball bat). When I was a kid, I recall that their games drew impressive crowds. I later found out that some of the participants were former legends of the game from their respective island nations. Some of them had migrated to New York City to find work, but they never ditched their passion for the game. Although the league lacked any sort of international legitimacy, that didn't deter scores of cricket enthusiasts from showing up. Simply put, they were fans thrilled to see cricket in any form.

See That Googly? It's Cricket in the Bronx is a New York Times article circa 1987 that I came across through a quick search for photos of the old cricket fields. The article reminded me about a minor spat between the cricket people and local residents. The cricket games were reduced to a much smaller section of the park near the riding stables. Due to the restricted space, errant balls went into the stables and rolling onto Broadway (yes, it's the same street that's the cross roads of Times Square -- basically, if you walk 200 blocks north om Broadway, you will reach Van Cortlandt Park), the same street that separated the park from Doubleday's Pub. After a talk with one of the local barflys (an ex-cop who regularly drank with my old man), I later discovered that there was an undertone of racism at play. He told me that our neighborhood, comprised of mostly Irish and Jewish families, was predominately white and the cricket players were people of color. Whether or not that is true, is still left to be determined.

I had forgotten about cricket until 2007. I flew down to Melbourne, Australia to cover the Aussie Millions. Due to jetlag and insomnia, I often sat in my room at the Crown Casino and watched Aussie TV, which included three sports stations (in addition to ESPN) and full station devoted to cricket matches. Nonstop cricket. I sat and watched and realized I had no clue what the hell was going on.

I visited Australia twice more within that year. During each visit, I watched more and more cricket. The game slowly seeped into my brain. I had some of the lingo down pat, but the rules were a little confusing. I had yet to bet on it because I still didn't know the ins and out of a sport, but at the same time, I heard wild stories about fixing scandals in cricket. Despite the warm fuzzy memories of cricket being played in the same park where I played second base for the SRBL, as an adult I had pegged cricket as a rigged sport like Jai Alai, horse racing, and Presidential politics.

John Caldwell suggested that I talk to our colleague Gaz, who was a huge cricket supporter in Melbourne. He had season tickets and was known to knock back 25-30 beers during a single match. I never saw a match with Gaz because my tolerance is much lower these days and I'd pass out by the 12th or 13th beer, but it's definitely on my list of "Epic Sporting Feats" that I'd like to do before I die. Drink with Gaz at a proper cricket match.

My first encounter with Shane Warne occurred inside the poker room at the Crown Casino in Melbourne. I had no idea who he was other than the tow-headed guy that was hanging out with Gaz. I bullshitted with him for a few minutes. He noticed my American accent and asked me how I was enjoying Australia and I prattled off all of the beers I tried. Then he told me I should drink Victoria Bitter. We ended our conversation and I walked into the poker room. A random person stopped me and said, "What did he say?"

"Huh?" I said.

"Warnie. What did you talk about?"

"Beer," I said and wandered off.

Later that night I discovered the significance of Shane Warne. At the time, I had no fucking clue he was a pitchman for VB and that I had chatted with the greatest Australian cricket player of all time.

My British friends, usually not phased by name dropping, were uncharacteristically intrigued that I had met Shane Warne.

"Ball of the century," said my colleague Conrad from London. "Type it into YouTube."

During one of my assignments at the Crown, I was covering a tournament and I reported that Shane Warne had gotten a penalty for using his mobile phone at the table. I wrote it up and an hour later, the poker room manager said that I had a phone call. It was an AFP reporter asking me about Warne's penalty. I assumed it was a slow news day. I clarified the mobile phone rule at the poker table and elaborated on Warne's infraction.

I was a clueless sot and unaware about Warne's marriage being broken up because of a text message with his mistress. Regardless, I was still quoted in an AFP article.

Conrad and my British colleagues were impressed. As Conrad said, "(You're the) first American in the history of history to supply an authoritative quote on a cricket story."

My Aussie friends were less than congratulatory. As one succinctly put it: "This is the bloody end of the fucking world, mate!"

And that was the re-introduction of cricket in my life. When I spent time in London on various assignments, I chatted with a few poker writers and they suggested that I cover The Ashes, a historical test match between Australia and Great Britain that happens every 1.5 to 2.5 years. They've been playing the Ashes since 1882 and that is on my list of sporting events to attend. I'd also love to cover it someday as a writer, maybe even write a book about my fish-out-of-water story as I stumble through the cricket world, trying to score hash while perpetually hungover and hanging out with binge-drinking, gregarious Australian reporters and binge-drinking, reserved British beat writers.

And thus brings us to Cricket's World Cup. Australia dominated the last three World Cups and were the favorite to win this year. With March Madness, it was hard to give it my full attention, but once I found out you can bet on matches, I decided... fuck it. I bet on the Final Four matches. Sri Lanka (who upset England) took on New Zealand the other day, and as I'm writing this India is taking on Pakistan. I bet both Sri Lanka and India. I consulted my buddy Graham, who is a Kiwi living in Oz, and we swapped intel on our perspective sports. I gave him my thoughts on the March Madness Final Four and he tipped me off that this is India's year.

Some of the back stories in this year's World Cup are extraordinary. This ESPN article is a must read... Why You Should Care About Cricket. It focuses on the phenomena surrounding India's best player, Sachin Tendulkar, who is Michael Jordan, Babe Ruth, the Beatles, Buddha, Picasso and George Washington all rolled into one.

It's upon Tendulkar's shoulders that 1 billion people in India are anticipating India's first World Cup in decades. Along the way, they had to upset Australia. Now, they are pitted against their rival Pakistan for a shot in the finals. Many pundits are calling this one of the biggest matches in the history of cricket. It's certainly gotten a significant amount of hype, probably because the Pakistan squad is currently tarnished by a cheating scandal after players were implicated in spot-fixing a match against England. And how serious is cricket in Pakistan? After the national team lost a tournament, the coach was rumored to have been executed.

Sweating cricket matches are even more grueling than baseball games. The World Cup matches are around eight hours long. The India-Pakistan match began at 2am PT. I crashed for the first two hours or so and woke up to watch the final six hours. I sat in the darkness of my living room, still a bit faded, and waiting until the sun finally came up before I mixed myself an eye-opening rum and orange/pineapple juice concoction. I used to joke that you weren't an alkie if you waited until noon to drink. That societal standard has been lowered to sunrise, which is as low a you can go. Despite being plagued with a short attention span, an 8-hour sporting event like cricket is a definite commitment, both physically and mentally, but due to medical breakthrough and advances in technology, 8-hour long cricket matches are conductive if you have proclivities to specific time-released pharmaceuticals.

Ah, and now it's 9am. An hour or so left in the match. India is looking good, but I'm only understanding about 65% of what's going on. I caught a rare "wicket" in real time, which as pretty cool. The match is being played on Indian soil and the majority of the fervent pro-Indian crowd are waving their flags with swirls of orange, white, and green, while bits of classical Indian-themed music pumped out on the PA with a techno backbeat to get the crowd even more riled up as they can now smell a victory.

I'm sitting on the edge of my couch in LA and secretly wishing I was sweating my bet among the 50,000 fanatics in the stands at Punjab Stadium in Chandigarh, India watching the living legend Sachin Tendulkar showing off his Teddy Baseball-esque skills.

Monday Morning Nugs: Jungleman in the Times, Zynga: Pro or Con?, PokerRoom.com Ahead of Its Time, Absolute Poker Rigged Keno, and More Silver Bears

By Pauly
New York City


Greetings citizens of Earth and a few intergalactic visitors crashing our wondrous party called Monday morning, which falls somewhere in between Rush Week for Delta Tau Chi and an Irish Wake. Then again, in the neighborhood where I grew up, there's wasn't much of a difference -- just once less drunk.

It's Monday morning, a time of utter misery for some, which is why I want to share a few nuggets of poker news-worthy tidbits to keep you from going completely insane today. Enjoy...
Profiles: It's not very often the online poker appears in positive light in an influential mainstream publication that doesn't entail a non-cheating, non-robbery, or non-piece of legislation angle. That's why it was refreshing to read Online Poker's Big Winner. It's an insightful, slice of life piece on Daniel "jungleman12" Cates. This was my favorite line:
The Cheesecake Factory was mobbed. We found a spot at the bar, and Cates flagged down the bartender to order the filet mignon. In the five meals Cates and I shared over three days, he ordered filet mignon three times. As we waited for the bartender to bring us our drinks, I noted our luck in finding a seat on Valentine's Day. Without a trace of irony, Cates, who speaks in the halting cadence most often associated with World of Warcraft group chats, asked, "Why would a restaurant be any more crowded on Valentine’s Day?"
Read the entire article here. (NY Times)

Social Media: With all the Zynga talk the last week or so, I re-read this thorough, thought-provoking post Why Zynga Poker Will Not Be the Next PokerStars. Maybe Bill can write a follow-up and updated version? Would love to hear about some of his thoughts after the most recent Zynga Con. (Bill's Poker Blog)

Op/Ed: Speaking of Zynga. Katkin wrote an op-ed about his experiences at Zynga Con. ZyngaPoker Pro or Con?: Assessing the impact of a Facebook game’s arrival in Las Vegas. (Pokerati)

Marketing: Kim sounded off on Why PokerRoom.com Was Five Years Ahead of Its Time. Remember those guys? I always thought that PR was ahead of the curve when I noticed (pre-UIGEA)they were advertising at NY Knicks games and in/on NY City taxis. (Infinite Edge Gaming)

Cheaters: Absolute Poker Rigged Keno! Wait, what? Read Noah SD's latest rant. (Noah SD)

Silver Bears: The Silver Bears are back with a new episode on their series about the manipulation of the silver market. I friggin' love the Silver Bears and their hysterical videos. (Tao of Fear)
That's it for now. I'm working on a few non-poker assignments and fear monger as per usual, but as soon as I'm done I'll write a little more about the Stars-Wynn merger and rumors about Full Tilt merging with Station Casinos.

Until then, GTFOOMO!

Elite 8 Sunday Picks - March Madness 2011

By Pauly
New York City

After a remarkable Thursday and Friday in New York City, my streak came to a grinding halt when both dogs won yesterday. I had bet both favorites. Bleh. Such is life as a sportsbettor. The sharps got murdered last Thursday night betting favorites and the dogs/teams that won played again on Saturday. Guess what? Both dogs won again.

My only saving grace on Saturday was a pair of UNDER totals on the Arizona/UCONN game. I finished the day with a small loss, but I can't help but think how much uglier it would have been without it. By the way, thanks to RJ Bell and company for swaying my opinion on the UNDER. I kept vacillating on that total all morning until I saw one of RJ's videos on PreGame.com and I liked what they had to say about a slower paced game.

Both my Saturday picks had a legit shot at covering, but everything that could go wrong -- did. Both UConn and Florida held leads in the 2nd half only to squander it away. Florida chucked up too many treys and failed to hit their free throws. UCONN was friggin' lucky to advance to the Final Four. Their lackluster playing in crunch time seemed like a sure recipe for disaster, but they somehow stole the victory. It sucked for me because they won, but didn't cover. Ah, fuck me.

Oh well. Some days you kick the dog. Other days, the dog pisses on your leg.

And yes, we got peed on, albeit, a little trinkle, but canine urine is urine nonetheless. But thank God for Sundays and a chance to get back on the (gravy) train. I'm ready to shake off Saturday's malaise and can't wait to get back in the game. No more dog piss. I'm gonna kick the dog by betting the dogs!


Here are today's picks. Fade/tail at will. It's up to you...


- UNC +1.5. I don't like Carolina as a favorite (because Roy Williams squad can't bet the fucking spread to save their lives), but love Carolina as a dog. Yes, the #2 seed UNC is getting points (even though they beat UK earlier this year and whooped Marquette), but not by much. The line opened at Kentucky -1. I jumped on UNC when the line moved to -1.5. Around noon ET, the line moved back to -1. After yesterday I'm skiddish that more dogs will win, but this game is a virtual coin flip. I love racing, eh?

- VCU +11.5. It's hard not to see Kansas in the Final Four. Historically speaking, there has to be at least one #1 seed right? With that said, Kansas wins a close game. VCU is a much stronger team than Richmond, not to mention the hottest team in the tournament led by Coach Shakra "Chaka" Smart. Unlike Butler, VCU cruised into the Elite 8 and didn't struggle in the second and third rounds -- unless you count a close game with FSU as a "struggle" in the Sweet 16. Let's not forget that VCU was one of the last teams selected in the tournament -- they had to play a play-in game. Conspiracy theorists and the tin foil hat cabalists are suggesting that the NCAA is rigging the Final Four to included VCU -- in an attempt to sway the public/media pundits on expanding March Madness to a 96-team field. Come to think about it, I'm slightly sympathetic to their assertion, but we won't know for sure until the game tips off and we'll see how the zebras alter the outcome of the game. Will the refs call it tight with ticky-tack defensive fouls against Kansas? And just how many 50-50 calls will fall in favor of VCU?

- UNDER 147 for VCU/Kansas. Close game. Slower paced. I'm expecting Kansas to win by five or six and barely cracking 70 points. I keep closing my eyes and seeing 72-66 or 70-64 as a final score. Then again, that might just be the effects of the wake-n-bake.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now. Instead of live blogging the minutiae of sports betting, follow my progress on Twitter via @taopauly for live Elite 8 updates. Not to fear, the regular poker-themed programming will resume on Monday with a heady, new link dump with juicy nuggets of poker news.

Elite 8 Saturday Picks - March Madness 2011

By Pauly
New York City

There's some value (big cheddar on the horizon) on betting dogs (i.e. fading the sharps and leading the sheeple) for the Sweet 16 games, that is to say, only when you bet the proper dogs. And what constitutes a proper dog? One that wins. I got one dog right but missed a chance at the other one during Friday night action. Four games. Two #1 seeds. Two double digit seeds. And I couldn't stay away from betting something, a little taste, on every game because of an inert inability of control the inner action junkie that rules my world for a fortnight after the Ides of March.

I had a relatively fun Friday, all things reconsidered. The only low point? When #1 seed Ohio State got upset by Kentucky. G-Rob sent me a text the other day with a bit of unsolicited advice that I should bet his alma mater Kentucky, and take it to the bank. I should have listened to him. I wasn't 100% sold on the spread and instead I bet OSU money line, but even that conservative bet shit the bed when Kentucky won by 1. Another #1 seed bit the dust. Three down with only #1 Kansas remaining.

On a dour note, I picked OSU to win the majority of my pools, including Pauly's Pub, and now I'm gotta grind out a couple of sports bets to make up for the cashola that I pissed away on 15+ brackets in various pools.

My biggest saving grace? Riding the hot team for a profit -- VC fucking U. I hammered VCU with a pair of moneyline bets and happily gobbled up points, getting +4 against FSU in a battle of the double digit seeds. It was a close match and VCU prevailed. That victory wiped out any loses incurred with OSU.

In the most boring games of the tournament, I added a couple of conservative moneyline bets on UNC and Kansas. The fact that Kansas had an open path to the championship game freaked me out, which made them vulnerable if they were overlooking their game against Los Sipders of Richmond. Ha, what the fuck was I thinking? I was too conservative with underestimating a young UNC squad (who hadn't covered in their previous 5 games) and a Kansas team on a mission. Coulda. Woulda. Shoulda. I shoulda taken off my "restrictor plates" and bet those favorites with the points. Ah, well. That's the past. I shouldn't worry about being greedy, and instead, focus on making well-informed decisions and curtailing the amount of money I place on impulse bets.


OK, enough of me yapping about Friday's games. You're here to fade/tail my Saturday picks, so let's get down with it...


- UCONN -3 and -2.5. I bet the Huskies twice -- once yesterday and again this morning when I woke up and saw the line move. According to RJ Bell's PreGame.com podcast, there's a "wiseguy tendency to bet the dogs in the Elite 8." Ho hum. And if the friggin' line moves again to -2, I'm gonna hit it again as hard as I can. My gut is telling me to stick with UCONN, a hot team that has made many bettors wealthy over the last couple of weeks because UCONN covered every game in March Madness (and a few in the big East tournament). When Kemba Walker gets hot, no one can stop him. But what about Arizona's Derrick Williams? On Thursday he proved he had the skills to play at the next level. He might be the best player in the country, but can he carry Arizona all the way to the Final Four? Nope. This will be D-Will's last game in an Arizona uniform before he becomes a lottery pick in the NBA. I was tinkering with an idea of betting the UNDER total play in this game because the public knows those two teams don't play defense for shit and they'll be hammering the OVER. Sometimes, you gotta fade the public, but I'm still on the fence.

- Florida -3.5 and Florida -190 ML. Florida should have put away BYU in the late 2nd half, but a couple of ill-timed missed free throws forced an overtime session. They Gators couldn't close the deal and finally put Jimmer and the Mormons out of their misery. Butler got lucky twice on Thursday -- Wisconsin played like shit the other night (shooting an anemic 30%) and even after they blew a 20+ point lead, they were able to hold off the counterattack and still win. After another remarkable run in the tournament, it's finally time to say goodbye to Butler. Florida is too tough, led by NYC-bred point guard Erving Walker, who incidentally is my new favorite player. Just hit your free throws, man! My biggest gripe about Florida -- their erratic free three shooting (hence why BYU was still in the game) -- which might cause me to lose more hair and turn my remaining hair grey. I selected Florida to beat Pitt in this "Elite 8" game in most of my brackets, so it's hard for me not to see Florida in the Final Four. Ah, one last note...I put in a small bet on the Florida moneyline just in case Butler hangs tough and Florida misses their FTs in crunch time and they only win by a bucket.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now.

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of sports betting, follow my progress on Twitter via @taopauly for live Elite 8 updates. Not to fear, the vacuum chamber of the poker world and regular poker-themed programming will resume on Monday.

* * *

Update...

2:22pm: I'm tailing RJ Bell and company's pick on the UNDER total in the UCONN/Arizona. They gave a convincing argument here. I got the UNDER in at 145.5 and 146.5.

March Madness Picks: 2011 Sweet 16 - Friday

By Pauly
New York City

Well, there goes another #1 seed down the toilet. Duke haters rejoiced when Arizona upended America's most loathed #1 seed, which sent a huge percentage of brackets into a tailspin. The first bracketbuster of the year occurred when Butler picked off Pitt, and the first #1 seed got the boot last weekend. You can add Duke to the list of defunct #1 seeds. As much as Duke gets the short-end of the venom stick, I know a significant number of people in my pool(s) who had Duke (at the least) advancing to the Elite 8, let alone most of America who had Duke as a lock for a Final Four. Ah, but Sean Miller's Arizona squad stood in their way and prevented a repeat championships for Coach K and the Dukies.

I picked Arizona +9, but it wasn't because of a scouting report or a hunch, rather out of simple Duke-Sucks-Bias. I just wanted to bet against Duke and I got lucky. No skill there. But man, Derrick Williams is probably the best player in the country after his performance against Duke with 25 points in the first half to keep them in the game. Jimmer Ferdette gets a lot of hype, and the kid from upstate NY can shoot, but he looked awful last night. Meanwhile, Williams solidified the assessment of NBA scouts -- he's the real deal and could/should go #1 in the draft. Whereas, Jimmer's future as an NBA player is a question mark. The kid can shoot but can't play a lick of defense, which means the Knicks will make him their #1 draft pick.


BYU had a shot but they (Jimmer) couldn't score in crunch time. Perhaps the Mormons ran out of gas? Florida, on the other hand, had the game locked up yet couldn't close it out and as a result, allowed the game to go into overtime. I needed the OT to cover 2.5. I would have been livid if Florida scored on their final possession in regulation and won the game by a mere bucket. Alas, this was the second time this March Madness that I needed OT for a shot to cover -- and I got it -- after Florida whooped BYU in the extra session. In the final 7-8 minutes of the game, an exhausted Jimmer couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.

Butler took on a schizo Wisconsin team. The Badgers looked the the squad who got blown out by Ohio State and could barely muster up 30+ points against Penn State. Yep, that's what they looked like for almost 30+ minutes as Butler opened up a 20-point lead, but Butler got complacent and allowed Wisconsin to storm back and get within 4 points. Alas, Butler held off a Wisconsin comeback and they held onto a 7 point victory. I knew Butler played a lot of close games so getting points is a blessing. In that instance, I didn't need them.

The only misstep on Thursday was San Diego State. Bleh. I knew the fix was in 4 minutes into the game when Kawhi Leonard picked up a second foul, a technical at that, which seemed strange because SDSU rarely got techs and Leonard has been known as one of the more quiet (aka non-cocky) players in the country. Kemba Walker finally got hot and UCONN pulled out to a lead. In the second half, SDSU made a run but Leonard picked up a third and eventually a fourth (both tickey tack fouls), which disrupted their offensive flow. As a result, their O stagnated down the stretch and they couldn't stop Kemba. UCONN prevailed and I lost my only bet of the day, albeit a big bet, but luckily I won all of my other (smaller) bets including a double down on Butler when SDSU lost the game.

Enough gloating/moaning about yesterday's games. You're here to fade/tail my picks for today, so here they are...


- UNC -200 ML. I'm afraid to bet UNC after they failed to cover in the last game. I like them to win, along with most of the favorites on Friday, but I'm squeamish about laying points, so I took the Heels with the money line.

- Kansas -725 ML. More favorites. It's hard to picture a scenario in which Kansas loses to #12 seed Richmond, but I dunno if they can cover 11-12 points.

- Richmond +10.5. This is a hedge just in case another #1 seed falls. I'd hate to lose a monster moneyline bet on Kansas, but if that's the case, this would cushion the blow a bit.

- Ohio State -5.5 and Ohio State -260 ML. At this point, the championship is Ohio States to lose. As much as I have a ton of friends who are Kentucky fans, I loaded up on the OSU moneyline and put a minor bet on the points. They smell blood.

- VCU +4. This is my only dog of the day, which isn't saying all that much considering they are up against #10 FSU. VCU has blown out their last two opponents, which is why I'm weary of hammering them in the Sweet 16. FSU is a sleeper, so much so that I doubt many people had them advancing this far, then again, you can say the same thing about VCU. I can't turn my back against a hot team, so VCU it is.
Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.That's it for now.

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of sports betting, you can follow my progress on Twitter via @taopauly for live Sweet 16 updates. Not to fear, the vacuum chamber and regular poker programming will resume on Monday.

March Madness Picks: 2011 Sweet 16 - Thursday

By Pauly
New York City

I survived the opening week of March Madness with my bankroll still in tact, but it only grew a small amount. Let's hope that trend changes over the next few days. At the least, I finished off Sunday with a small profit betting the dogs, VCU and Marquette. The damn Heels missed a push by 1 and an outright cover by 2 points. Hit your fucking free throws, UNC!

The most difficult aspect of the Sweet 16 games is controlling your impulse to bet on every game. Unfortunately, I crave action and have zero semblance of control, which is why it'll be impossible for me to avoid betting on every game for the rest of the tournament. Alas, to preserve my bankroll, I varied the betting amounts depending on the matchups. For example, on Thursday I'll have one big bet and three small ones.


So let's get down to it...


- San Diego State +1. I bet SDSU on Sunday night because I had a hunch that they wouldn't be a dog (albeit a minimal dog) for too long. By Thursday at noon Vegas time, the line has settled on -1. SDSU bandwaggoners love the fact the game is in Anaheim, because it will be almost like a home game for the Aztecs. I don't necessarily agree. UCONN is a team that can handle hostile crowds very well. In the end, I'm going with my gut that the entire Big East was overrated this season and hope SDSU doesn't fall into an offensive lapse in the middle of the 2nd half, which should have been their downfall in their last game.

- Florida -2. I keep trying to convince myself that BYU is the better team and I should bet on them. They have one of the best players in the country in Jimmer, but none of those arguments are convincing enough. I got a gut feeling that the Mormons run is over tonight, so stick with the Gators.

- Butler +4.5. When will Butler's run end? Or are they just getting warmed up? Over the last two years, Butler plays extremely close games in the tournament. Even if they lose, it's going to be a squeaker, so getting 4+ points is a no-brainer.

- Arizona +9. I can't bet on Duke. Just hope the Cats keep in close in the first half and hit their FTs down the stretch.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now.

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of my Sweet 16 sports betting, you can follow my progress on Twitter via @taopauly for live March Madness updates. Regular poker programming will resume on Monday.

Orphaned Cards

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

When I lived in New York City, I occasionally came across an orphaned playing card on the ground just laying there on the sidewalk. I don't know the exact percentages, but it seemed as though the innocuous cards were always found face up. I attributed that to our brain's pre-programmed recognition of playing cards, that spin faster than the gears for online slots. The backs of traditional decks are ordained with a standard red or blue pattern that I can only describe as the traditional "playing card pattern." For whatever reason, I'm struggling to describe what backs of a playing card look like, but you know what I'm talking about. So with regard to orphaned playing cards, while wandering down a semi-crowded street, engrossed in thought, and processing thousands of different images at once, our eyes often overlook the backs of playing cards and recognize face up cards more frequently, especially poker players, because we're used to a specific pattern recognition -- either actively or subconsciously -- of distinct playing cards. Spades. Hearts. Diamonds. Clubs.

A couple of years ago when I first started this blog, I conjured up an idea that incorporated found objects, which is an arsty fartsy term for "turning trash into art." At the time, I lived in New York City and spent many hours roaming the streets aimlessly to kill time as an unemployed wanna-be screenwriter who couldn't hack it on Wall Street. During those navel-gazing excursions, I wandered upon orphaned cards lying on the street.

My idea was simple: I wanted to amass an entire deck of orphaned cards, all 52 cards and a pair of Jokers (if I could find them).

Like most of my grandiose ideas, I probably discussed them with friends over beers or a spliff, but never actually followed through on the project for a number of reasons. Orphaned playing cards is still trash. Even if you take the "three second rule" in account, the cards are tainted. As much as I was inspired to create an art from discarded playing cards found on the streets of Manhattan, the risk of germs was too significant. Besides, did I really want to spend my free time wandering around the city and pick up playing cards that might have traces of urine and fecal matter? Also, a tinge of laziness crept into the mix and reality set in -- this found-art project could take years or perhaps even a decade to complete.

Great minds think alike. An American artist named Kerstin von Gabain was living in Beijing and noticed an inordinate amount of discarded playing cards in the street. Von Gabain collected the orphaned cards and incorporated them into an art project titled Stuggling for Points. Unfortunately, Von Gabain was unable to collect a full deck for the project.

Von Gabain had many theories on the orphaned cards. The most relevant one suggested that Chinese gamblers used the cards to play Zheng Fen, a popular game in which players accumulated points. After running up debts during a bad streak, titled gamblers tossed aside unlucky cards, which Von Gabain eventually stumbled across on the streets of Beijing.

Some losing gamblers loving passing the blame onto others. They blame the dealer, or they cite the poker room as the reason they lost. Online poker players often claim that "online poker is rigged" when they run into a horrendous string of bad luck. Meanwhile, Zheng Fen players exorcised their gambling run bad by discarding unlucky cards.

Those damn cards!

If that practice happened in Las Vegas during the WSOP, the entire parking lot at the Rio would be flooded with a sea of unlucky cards. Billions of them.

So why did I come across unlucky cards in New York City? Why did they get thrown out? I really don't know. I have a few theories, but none of them seem legit. One minor theory was that New Yorkers read more books than the average American and some of them used playing cards as bookmarks, and the bookmarks were lost by accident or tossed aside after someone finished a book. The other minor theory was that a bunch of street hustlers were trying to fleece tourists in an impromptu game of Three Card Monte, but they broke up the game when the heat closed in. They scattered along with the cards (evidence).

It had been a while since an orphaned playing card crossed my path. When I moved to Las Vegas a few years ago, I never saw any orphaned playing card randomly on the ground, something that surprised me considering how much time I spent in casinos and in poker rooms. On the Strip, I saw a plethora of business cards for hookers and escorts that the porn slappers handed out at random spots on Las Vegas Blvd. During the WSOP, the carpeted floor of the Rio's convention center became a refuge for unwanted fliers and coupons that the Sapphire Girls handed out to tourists. The ground was strewn with images promising the allure of sexual deviancy, yet not a single orphaned playing card.

I moved to Los Angeles, a city that has very few pedestrians because everyone drives everywhere, and I might be one of the few people in the City of Angels who takes long walks. After a couple of years of not seeing anything peculiar on the ground, I came across a steady flow of orphaned playing cards this year. Irony? The first two cards I came across? Jacks. I found a pair of Jacks while wandering around the slums of Beverly Hills.
I noticed the first Jack off of Robertson Blvd., shortly after I returned from the Bahamas...



I noticed the second Jack on Pico Blvd. at the end of February...



I came across this one the other day just off Olympic Blvd...


I've embraced the digital era to assist me with a new art project, so now I don't have to collect dirty, nasty orphaned cards off the ground and store them inside my office. Instead, all I have to do is whip out my CrackBerry and snap away.

My ultimate project goal is to take cellphone photos of various orphaned cards that I encountered while walking around domestic and international cities. At this pace, I'm hoping to photograph a full deck by 2015-16. I already have a pair of Jacks and two diamonds...

Monday Morning Nugs: Greg Pierson, Onyx Cup, Isildur1 Busts Negreanu in SuperStar Showdown, nanonoko, #CampBill, and Anon v. the Fed

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA


Happy Monday. Are you having a March Madness hangover? Did the SuperMoon cause spooky things to happen in your neighborhood, like the dogs howling and a superfluous number of methheads passing out in the parking lot of Taco Bell?

Anyway, while you slowly get back into the sync of the work week, sit back and munch on these heady nuggets of poker-ish news...
Haley's posted the latest installment of Just Conjecturin', her thorough investigation into the UB cheating scandal. Here's the skinny...
"When I started the series, I didn't have much for facts on the UB side, and some of my early theories turned out to be wrong. As you'll see later in this tale, there was indeed a "jam" of some sort going on, but it appears the jam was Greg Pierson's, not Russ Hamilton's, and the solution to the problem was to enable the superusing and scrape tens of millions of illicit dollars into various endeavors or off the site in its entirety. Now comes the sordid dirt, and the part I've really put off writing about because, well, it's sad and disgusting. But it cannot help but be the key to it all, and so it must be dug back up."
You can read more at Volume 30: Naming Names -- Greg Pierson. (Haley's Poker Blog)

Full Tilt Poker (their pros in suave suits) announced the Onyx Cup, a super high roller tournament series that competes with both Jeffrey Pollack's newly formed Federated poker league and PokerStars' various international tours. (Full Tilt Poker)

F Train asked Three questions about the The Onyx Cup, meanwhile, Shamus offered up his two cents in Another Level: The Onyx Cup Series. (Riding the F Train, Hard-Boiled Poker)

One of the better poker-themed documentaries I've seen in a while... Randy Lew brings "nanonoko" from behind the curtain (PokerStars Blog)

In the most recent edition of the SuperStar Showdown on PokerStars, Daniel Negreanu took on Isildur1 and... lost $150,000 in 1,400 hands. I think they are gonna play again next Sunday. Anyway, here's a creative summary of the Negreanu vs. Isildur1 showdown by a poster on 2+2. H/T to KevMath. (TinyPic.com)

For some political analysis, check out gamingcounsel's Thoughts on H.R. 1174 (the #CampBill). (Pokerati)

The collective known as Anonymous recently declared war on the Fed. (Tao of Fear)
That's it for now. You know the drill. NGTFOOMO.

March Madness Picks: 2011 Round 3 - Sunday

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

Darkness. The blackness of morning is one of the few downsides to the recent shift in Daylight Savings Time. That's one of the other reasons why March Madness feels like Christmas morning, because I'm awake way before I should be and tip-toeing around the apartment trying to catch a fat, bearded guy in a red suit leaving behind a special present. Except, that fat guy is not St. Nicholas, rather, a chubby tout from Vegas who swears that he has a sure thing for me, provided that I give him $100 and re-tweet his tout services. Everyone is a hustler.

My picks might suck, but they will always be free.

This morning, when the darkness finally lifted, I was greeted by grey malaise on a rainy Sunday. Radiation rain. That's what I've been calling the first droplets of rain that fell on the West Coast of America with the slightest, safe bits of Fukushima radiation. One of my slightly-paranoid inner voices encouraged me to stay indoors today, which was not difficult of a task considering that I had a jar full of "Charlie Sheen" OG, energy bars, and a couple of bottles of rum. I wasn't going anywhere today anyway, because it's the last batch of games before we're down to the Sweet 16. Yep, only 8 teams will advance today. The question of course is -- which ones?

The Earth experienced a minor anomaly yesterday, the so-called Super Moon which marked the closest that the moon rotated around our planet in 18 years. I guess that's the main reason why I finished 5-1 in my picks (not including a money line bet on Florida) and hit not one, but two parlays ... including a rare 5-teamer that paid 27-1 (the other was a pedestrian 3-teamer). The 27-1 shot was a nifty win, but I was cursing myself the rest of Saturday night for not betting more. Even though I shipped a pair of parlays, I'm probably still stuck overall (lifetime) wagering those pesky -EV bets. Parlays and teasers make bookies very wealthy.

I was thrilled to book the rare win, which only occurred thanks to the Super Moon. I need astronomical anomalies and computer-generated picks to win wagers. The computer spit out chalk on Saturday and I was happy to oblige betting mostly favorites. He two dogs I liked, Butler and Morehead State, ended up splitting. I doubled down on Morehead when the line moved to +5. To my dismay, I'm stubborn and Morehead's run got overshadowed by Richmond.



Meanwhile, Butler became this year's bracket buster by picking off #1 seed Pitt. Yep, I told ya the Big East was overrated. Too bad I didn't listen to my gut when putting together my brackets. I bet Butler, but picked Pitt on most of my sheets. I was a pig in shit when the line moved in my favor and I bet Butler twice yesterday, which made up for the second bet on Morehead.

And yeah, the Pitt-Butler ending was sketchy as hell.

The sickest, insane, most deviant moment of this year's March Madness happened courtesy of San Diego State. The Aztecs (and my semi-adopted SoCal team) looked like awesome Final Four material for 30 minutes, but then someone flipped the doom switch because they went cold. Frigid cold. They couldn't fucking score and blew a double digit lead. As time ticked away and the clock was under 2 minutes, my future looked grim. The only way SDSU was going to cover 6 points? Overtime. Because during an extended an overtime session, they got 5 minutes of extra time to win by a margin of 6. I guess the gambling gods and/or St.Francis of Assisi heard my prayers, because I got what I wanted and the SDSU game went into OT. However, midway through the OT, SDSU found themselves in the same position as regulation. Fuck me, I desperately needed a second OT for a shot at covering -- which I miraculously got. And courtesy of the Super Moon, SDSU won by 7 in the second OT and covered the spread. I won my bet and should not have, but did, so whattagonnado? Do I believe in miracles? Fuck yeah.

So not it's time to divulge my (few, but always free) picks for today. Tail or fade at will...
March Madness Picks - 3/20 Sunday:


- UNC -4. I'm sticking with yesterday's trend of betting favorites. UNC easily advances to Sweet 16s, but it's in the later stages of the tourney that they usually struggle. The line moved to -5, so I'm happy that I locked in better number.

- VCU +9. Let's ride the hot team! VCU won a play-in game, upset Georgetown, and now has a shot at advancing to the Sweet 16. I sincerely doubt they get there, but they'll put up a valiant fight, which is why +9 seemed like a gift.

- Marquette +4.5. I like Darius Johnson-Odum. Let's see if Cuse can contain him. I'm not 100% sold on this pick, yet I'm betting it small anyway just have some action.

- FSU +5.5. This isn't on the "sheet" but I added a small bet on FSU as a dog against #2 seeded Notre Dame, hoping that the ACC trumps the overrated Big East.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now.

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of my sports betting, please head over to Twitter and follow my progress on @taopauly for live March Madness updates. Regular poker programming will resume on Monday.

* * *

Update...

1:20pm: Kansas can't lose, right? I hit them up on the money line at -420. Seriously. Give me the money line at 420, Bob! By the way, Happy 420 to all my herb friendly readers on the East Coasters.

2:43pm: I added Ohio St. - 11 when I got breaking news that one of George Mason's starters was ill and not playing.

3:12pm: OSU looked too good in the first half. Mason looked...overwhelmed at times. I added a second half bet of -1.5. It's gonna continue to be a rout and at some point the benches will empty and the scrubs will play, but OSU's second squad is much more talented than Mason's.

3:14pm: While I was shopping around, I added an impulse buy... the OVER 142 in the Arizona/Texas game.

March Madness Picks: 2011 Round 3 - Saturday

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

You've survived the initial onslaught of March Madness. Are you delirious yet? 32 teams remain and how is your bracket holding up? By Sunday night, will you have properly selected 12 correct Sweet 16 teams? Will you have 13 or more? If so, you'll be in awesome shape in your pools.

I'm in 16 pools yet my best sheet is only 28-4. I'm currently tied for 2nd in Pauly's Pub pool with a 27-3 clip. First place is currently Dave McCarthy,who piggybacked El Presidente Obama's picks! Well, say what you want about Obama, but the guy knows his hoops and went 29-3. I think I'm tied for 18th place in ESPN Poker's pool (out of over a thousand entries). In some odd twist of fate, my girlfriend is tied for first place in a different pool against other alumni from Northwestern. Ah, but most importantly, I'm in a high rollers pool playing Garth heads-up. For an Aussie, he knows his Yank sports. I'm lucky that even though that sheet went 24-8, I'm ahead of Garth by just 1 incorrect game.

Enough about brackets... how about some sports betting updates?

Friday was more than a little strange for me (not strange in a peculiar psychedelic way, but more so in a David Lynchian ironic drudgery way of strange) because I didn't have too much action across the board, yet for some reason I got as schwasted as I've been in a while.



I've been relying upon an untested computer program (created by a former Wall Street quant), but it's fickle and it only spit out only 1 that it liked (well, that meshed with my original, albeit half-baked research), which means that I stretched my selections a bit and pushed the action with George Mason. I'm glad that I did because I finished up with a profitable day... led by Mason's come-from-behind victory and VCU's upset.

The lowlight of Friday? I thought Texas was a lock, and still like them a lot, but they blew a 20-point lead late in their game to cost me a bet.

The highlight of the evening happened in one of the last games on the schedule when VCU picked off a sluggish Georgetown squad. I really thought G'town was going to win a close, low-scoring affair and didn't expect an out right upset. But, beggars can't be choosy. VCU's upset might have cost me a Sweet 16 team, but at least I was compensated for that loss. As I stated many times, the Big East is overrated.

In super-turbo-degen NIT action, Colorado and Santa Clara covered. I needed Colorado to fill in the third leg of a 3-team parlay (along with heavy favorited #1 seeds Duke and Kansas).

Ah, now it's time to share my picks for Saturday. The theme of today is: CHALK. Piggyback or fade at will...
March Madness Picks - 3/19 Saturday:


- Florida -5. The Gators looked strong in their opening game. I try to figure out lines as soon as the match ups are set. If my line is better than Vegas, then I jump on it. Florida was one of those teams. My estimation was a 7.5 margin of victory, and was pumped to get them at -5. This morning, the line moved to -5.5.

- Kentucky -3.5. The boys in blue are favorites in Vegas. Kentucky moved a half point over night. I locked them in at 3.5 and it's now 4 and 4.5 in some offshore books. Time to smoke some Kentucky bluegrass and root for them heavily today, as they march toward another Sweet 16 berth.

- SDSU -6. I guess that the Aztecs of San Diego State University have become my adopted West Coast team (even though I watched more St. Mary's games). Their spot in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 is theirs to lose. I think they might be one of the strongest #2 seeds. Regardless, SDSU should win by double digits today.

- UCONN -3. The Huskies have given me a few splitting headaches this year. That double OT loss in Storrs a few weeks ago sent me on mega-sports betting-tilt. But, I have faith that the Huskies will win at least one more game. Let's hope they don't get sloppy and make it a miserable sweat today. The computer loves UCONN, but the computer is not as emotionally distraught as I am when I watch the games. Let's hope my theory about Big East teams being overrated does NOT apply to UCONN.

- Morehead State +3.5. This was one of two dogs I picked. The computer likes them for some reason. I kinda liked Richmond (Go SPIDERS!), but it was hard to argue against the logic of Spock, Hal2000, and whatever artificial intelligence software my buddy created.

- Butler +7.5 and +8. I locked up Butler yesterday at 7.5 and figured that a lot of sharps will be betting them on Saturday. The line moved to 8 and I jumped on it (push potential), but I'm expecting the line to sway back the other way when the sharp money pounds Butler later this morning. Butler still has a little taste of Cinderella in their system from last year and they know what it takes to string together a deep run, but they are not as strong as last year's squad that held their own against Duke. Butler is a Sweet 16 team, but doubt they can advance any more than today's game.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood Country Club and in most parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now. Oh, and I also have an UNDER bet in the Northwestern NIT game, not to mention a three-team parlay with all chalk (SDSU, UCONN, and UK).

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of my sports betting, please head over to Twitter and follow my progress on @taopauly for live March Madness updates. Regular poker programming will resume on Monday.

March Madness Picks: 2011 Round 2 - Friday

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

Exciting opening day of the March Madness college hoops tournament. It was sort of a waste of a St. Patrick's Day for me because I focused on hoops instead of celebrating the day that St. Patrick drove the snakes out of Ireland by shooting laser beams out of 3-leaf clovers.

I lost money with a bunch of bookies instead of pissing it away at a bar slurping back green-dyed beer. On a good note, despite the betting downturn, I had a couple of elongated sweating experiences over a 13-hour stretch, so it was well worth the price of admission as I frantically paced around my apartment when I wasn't wearing out the spot on my couch.



March Madness is my favorite time of year when it comes to sports betting probably because I don't have any emotional investments in the games that would occur in professional sports (like rooting for my hometown Rangers, Knicks, Jets, or Yankees). Alas, I'm detached from the majority of my bets which means they are all investments. At least, that's how I justify my actions.

The opening round this year had a unique twist -- CBS shared the wealth among three other stations (TBS, TNT, and truTV), which meant that I had access to pretty much every game without having to sweat the action through a live stream -- something I had been doing the last few years.

As per usual, the overall coverage was palatable. As per usual, my biggest complaint is too many commercials and either too much hype or too little analysis, which is why I barely listened to the talking heads, instead, lowering the volume and replacing it with a Grateful Dead bootleg. I prefer watching the games on mute with music blasting. It's the only way for me to do it.

I went 4-5 betting wise (not including a money line and a 4-point teaser) and I ended up the day in the hole. I knew that I was rolling the dice with Utah State, but took a shot anyway. I just picked the wrong #12 seed to cause some damage. My other pair of upsets, Bucknell and Belmont, both shit the bed. The two most profitable bets for me were tips from others (Buffalo66 clued me in on Richmond and I jumped on Phil Ivey's Florida pick). The St. John's game killed any chances for me to turn a profit, which is something that I deserve because... 1) I made a bet based on emotions, and 2) I've been telling everyone who's been asking me that the Big East has a couple of good teams, but overall, they are overrated. If I followed my own advice, I would have cleaned up fading Louisville and St. Johns. I tried to fade UCONN, but Bucknell decided not to show up and left all of their sizzling shooters back home in Lewisberg.

Oh, well. Part of my penance today will be to fade Big East teams. In fact, just before tip off, I'll probably whip up a parlay or teaser card fading Syracuse, Georgetown, and Villanova.

My picks have been requested by a few of you, so piggyback or fade at will...
March Madness Picks - 3/18 Friday:


- George Mason +1 seems like a coinflip on paper, but Mason is a team that I did very well betting on during the regular season. Besides, that's Grubby alma mater and they usually play well in the opening round.

- VCU +5.5 is on my radar because VCU had to beat USC in a play-in game to get a shot at Georgetown, so they've already broken a sweat in the tournament. I like mid-majors in these positions (against an overrated league like the Big East). Alas, I have Georgetown wreaking havoc on a couple of my sheets and making a deep run. They should win this game but for some reason, VCU is calling out to me, so I hope they make it close.

- UNDER 133.5 VCU/Georgetown seems like a logical choice considering that the under hits a lot of the early games.

- Texas - 10.5 sounds like a gift. The Longhorns should win by 16+ or more. I think Texas is the most underrated #4 seed in the tournament this year.

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood and in parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it for now. I have a 4-point teaser and a couple of meaningless 8-team parlays, but who cares about those sucker bets anyway? I'll be keeping an eye on the first halves of the games and make adjustments on the fly with second half bets. I'll post any added picks here throughout the day, but keep an eye on my Twitter feed.

Instead of live blogging the minutiae of my uber-degen sports betting on Tao of Poker, please head over to Twitter and follow my progress on @taopauly for live March Madness updates.

* * *

Update....

9:30am: It breathe a sigh of relief whenever someone I trust also picked the same team. Great minds think alike, right? Buffalo66 just tweet'd that his early pick of the day is George Mason. He got them at +1.5. I quickly checked the offshore books and sure enough, the line had moved to +2. If I liked George Mason at +1, I love them even more at +2.

1:20pm: Happy 4:20 on the East Coast. I'm pissing my money away with a 3-team 4-point teaser... Indiana St +16.5, UNC -13, and Purdue -11.

1:44pm: Added Xavier +1 (jumping on the Buffalo66 bandwagon). In today's super degen NIT action, I also loaded up the needle with a tiny taste of a bet on Santa Clara -4.

March Madness Picks: 2011 Round 2 - Thursday

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA


I feel like I'm 8 years-old. Yep, this is the one day of the year that I feel like a little kid on Christmas. March Madness is officially upon us.

I'm gonna try something a little different this year (well, today and tomorrow at least) for March Madness. Instead of live blogging the my sports betting minutiae on Tao of Poker and distracting myself from the action, please head over to Twitter and follow my progress there. I'm @taopauly if you don't know by now.

Rest assured, I'll be writing something about March Madness on Tao of Poker (probably a daily recap or something) but for now, embrace this little experiment.

If you want picks.... well, here's my picks for the first day of the opening round...


March Madness Picks - 3/17 - Round 1:


- I bet one 4-point "teaser" on 3 teams barely getting 2-1 on my money, but I like those overall dogs getting an extra 4-point cushion.

- UNDER 130 for San Diego State/N. Colorado. That is my only O/U bet of the day and it's is gonna be my biggest sweat on St. Patrick's Day and it's my smallest bet today. I would have liked 131 or 132, but I'll take anything under.

- Belmont +5 is my big bet of the day. I just have a hunch here. Gut feeling. The name jumped out at me when I was filling out my brackets. I have Belmont going to the Sweet 16 on a couple of sheets.

- Bucknell + 10.5 might have been on my radar because my brother graduated from Bucknell. They were potential upset material because they're excellent free throw shooters and three-point shooter -- two aspects I love in March Madness teams. Alas, UCONN is too good to lose outright and I didn't pick a Bucknell upset on any sheets -- BUT -- I like them getting 10+ points. UCONN will win, but Bucknell is gonna give them a run for their money.

- St. Johns -1.5 (and not +1.5 as I scribbled down on my cheat sheet above) is me acknowledging that I'm jumping on the Johnnies bandwagon. They have like 5 or 6 wins against ranked teams. They rise to occasion against good teams, but often play down to their opposition...which scares me a bit. Johnnies are a first round bust out or they are going to the Elite 8.

- Utah St +2.5 is another dark horse pick. I think KSU beats them 3 out of 5 times they play, but I picked the #12 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 on one of my sheets.

- Florida -13 wasn't on my short list of picks, but I saw on Twitter that Phil Ivey liked Kentucky and Florida. Because UK plays Princeton and laying 13, I wanna stay away from that game. But #2 seeded Florida seemed interesting at -13 playing UCSB. I said fuck it... if Ivey liked Florida, then so do I!

Disclaimer: These picks are for entertainment purposes only. After all, gambling is illegal at Bushwood and in parts of rural America. The Tao of Poker is not a registered investment adviser or broker/dealer. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. Tao of Poker does not purport to tell or suggest which games that readers should wager for themselves. True gamblers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tao of Poker will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained on Tao of Poker. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
That's it. My picks for the opening round. Piggy back them, or fade them. It's up to you! That's it for now. Good luck to everyone out there today. Don't blow your bankroll on the first day of games. NGTFOOMO!

UPDATE...

11:45am PT: I couldn't resist the urge for more action. I added a couple of bets. Two. Only two. These two...
- Richmond +2.5 is a tip that I got from Buffalo66. He's got a good knack for picking outside the box.

- Wofford +8.5 is one of those impulse bets that I made. Can't justify or explain it any other way.
That's it for now.

* * * * *

Editor's Note:


Because it's also St. Patrick's Day, and I'm 50% Irish, be sure to read a post that I penned last year about luck titled: Lucky.

Chop Marks Reprise

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

I'm fascinated with chop marks on $100 bills. Here's five random bills out of my bankroll...










I posted more pics involving chop marks on two separate occasions in 2008: Just Because You're Not Paranoid, Doesn't Mean They're Not After You and More Marked Bills.

Closing the Sahara

By Pauly
Los Angeles, CA

The Sahara Casino is closing.

The Sahara represented my parents' Las Vegas and the innocent simplicity of the sepia-tinted photos of early 1960s: waking up late, eating room service omeletes, lounging by the pool, sipping tikki drinks next to perfectly-coiffed Don and Betty Drapers, eating a surf and turf dinner, consuming more tikki drinks, catching a glamorous show with Louis Prima or Don Rickles, then gambling the night away in the casino playing roulette, craps, or blackjack until the wee hours -- only to wake up late the next day and repeat the process. My parents and their generation experienced the original desert Paradise, meanwhile, I got Paradise Lost, or the watered-down, sold-out, corporatized version of Vegas. Ergo, Lost Vegas.

One of the original six casinos in Las Vegas, the oasis known as the Sahara opened its doors in 1952. The owner, former bingo parlor magnate Milton Prell, was chummy with Col. Tom Parker (a.k.a. Elvis' manager). Elvis supposedly got married in Prell's suite at the Sahara (although some accounts credited the Aladdin as the location of Elvis' nuptials).

Sahara's designer, Del Webb, owned the NY Yankees in the post-War II era (before selling to CBS, who then sold the team to George Steinbrenner). Webb eventually purchased the Sahara from Prell in 1961-62. Webb-Nevada became the first public company to own a major casino. In subsequent decades (1982, 1995) the Sahara traded hands among other big business interests until it landed in the hands of Sam Nazarian and SBE Entertainment Group. At the turn of the century, the casino added a rollercoaster and a NASCAR theme to capitalize on middle America's fascination with auto racing. A decade or so later, the doors are closing. But for good? Will the fate of the Sahara be the face of things to come in the next few years as more Strip properties close its doors?

A gaming conglomerate could swoop in, renovate the joint, whore out restaurant, bar, and retail shopping space to a bunch of other corporations and then re-open its doors. A hedge fund manager could get bored gambling on Wall Street and on a plutocratical whim, buy an authentic casino instead. Heck, maybe Gahdaffi will finally hand over power to Libyan rebels and relocate in Las Vegas in the top 3 floors of the Sahara? Or maybe a wealthy social media gajillonaire will buy the property, implode the old Sahara, and build a spanking-new casino? But does anyone want to party in a non-hip part of town on the north end of The Strip?

The Sahara in its physical nature will eventually cease to exist, but the once-alluring spirit of the casino will live forever in photographs. I'm glad someone documented the old Vegas. Kudos to those citizen documentarians.

Here are a five photos of the Sahara...


The Sahara
(photo via Vintage Vegas)


Louis Prima rocking the Sahara's Casbar Lounge in the 1950s
(photo via Vintage Vegas)


Sahara Pool in the 1960s
(photo via Vintage Vegas)


Modern Sahara with Monorail
(photo by Wolynski)


Modern Sahara
(photo by Flipchip)

* * * *

Las Vegas rose up out of the nothingness of the sand. A former Mormon missionary outpost had transformed into a gambling Mecca by gangsters, real estate developers, and bankers. Mecca is actually an inappropriate word to describe Las Vegas because there's nothing religious about a pilgrimage to modern day Sodom and Gomorrah -- the epicenter for the orgy of consumption.

Las Vegas has very few relics of the past. When you visit European cities like London, Paris, and Barcelona, you glimpse many centuries into the past with historic churches, preserved ruins, and other very old buildings that blended in with the modern architecture. However, Las Vegas' visionaries look to the future by erasing the past. Casinos used to be sanctuaries of brazen fun, but have since become oil wells that suck the Nevada desert dry of wealth. When the owners realized their well reached peak production, they scrambled to find potential buyers -- clueless new owners who were blinded by greed instead of realizing the the law of diminishing returns of a casino. Alas, when wells were no longer profitable to operate, they were unceremoniously shut down until the skeletal remains of the casino got imploded on local TV.

Instead of rusty derricks and rigs peppering the barren landscape of Saudi Arabia's Gahwar region or tumbleweeds-ridden West Texas, the Vegas barons don't let their old wells sit around for too long. I must admit that the casino/well analogy doesn't exactly fit in this instance because you can't re-tap the same well after all the oil has been extracted, but Las Vegas casinos owners have repeatedly rebuilt new, glitzy, modern monstrosities on top of rickety, languishing dinosaurs of yesteryear. And yes, they still rake in the cash.

The Sahara dominated the Las Vegas universe fifty years ago when it had a lot less competition, but that might has well been 500 years ago because lot has changed in the last century, let alone the last decade, yet for better or worse, the Sahara failed to stay ahead of the curve. The desert oasis is on the verge of becoming completely wiped out from Vegas landscape.

From nothing, it was born, and back to nothing it shall return.

* * * *

October 30, 1998.

"Isn't that adorable?" said the old lady in the hot seat, pointing at a faded pack of four disheveled wooks wandering through the casino in a search of the elevator to their room.

"Yes, they decided to wear their hippie costumes a day early," agreed her husband.

The old lady flashed a peace sign at the quartet of scraggly troubadours.

"Ma'am, they're not wearing costumes. Those neo-hippies dress like that all the time," I said after doubling down on an 11.

"Why would anyone want to look like a homeless person?"

I didn't want to tell them that the kids were in town to see the same band I was in town to see, so I changed the subject. I played a ton of blackjack that weekend, more than poker, grinding it out at a lowly $1 table waiting for forty fucking excruciating minutes to obtain a piss-warm Corona from one of the surliest cocktail waitress I have ever encountered in Vegas.

I played blackjack with a smattering of friends including an acquaintance from Olympia who detailed how she smuggled hash from Holland into Germany, then sold it to troops on the Air Force base where she worked as a sous chef in the Officers Club. Meanwhile the rest of my extended circle of friends sat in the poker room behind the blackjack tables. I lived in Seattle at the time (five years before I'd even opened up a Party Poker account) and a my poker buddies got hooked on hold'em after Rounders was released in theatres that summer. A bunch of us from my home game flew down to Vegas to meet up with another group of friends from New York City for an epic Halloween party weekend bender. We stayed up for two nights straight, gambled on college football at the Mirage, got kicked out of Olympic Gardens, and caught two Phish concerts at Thomas & Mack Arena (highlighted by an entire set on Halloween when they covered Velvet Underground's Loaded in its entirety).

The Sahara was the main base of operations that Halloween weekend with two rooms for 8 people, which cost us $10 a piece per night. Everyone was scattered between the Casbar Lounge, the poker room, and slumming at the $1 blackjack table. That weekend was a long blur. Trying to record the events as it happened proved to be difficult, let alone trying to rewind the events in my head 12.5 years later. Despite the foggy hallways of my mind, one moment stood out: late night after the Halloween concert when we actually walked from Thomas & Mack Arena back to the Sahara via a pit stop at a bar inside the MGM. Sounds so cliche, but it was Halloween, I was wearing a Hawaiian shirt and tripping balls on The Strip after (accidentally) ingesting several double-dipped hits of blotter. Double the visuals, double the fun. I was a lit monkey for a week.

That trip also marked the best buffet fried chicken I had ever devoured in Las Vegas (or the South for that matter). The chicken was so delicious that I ate it at the buffet twice that weekend. Can't say I've ever eaten it since.

* * * *

When I moved to Las Vegas in 2005, I bunked with Grubby in Henderson. We often drove to the Sahara to play in their nightly 7pm tournament -- mainly because the poker room provided free sandwiches to their players during the first break and they let you buy back in if you busted in the first couple of levels. We played a few times a week and Grubby usually made the final table, but I always fucking bubbled the final table. Although I grinded my buy-in back at the soft cash tables, it still used to bother me that I couldn't break the nagging streak of not making a final table.

The free food was a decent promotion. The food wasn't anything special -- everyone got a piece (or two) of a six-foot deli sandwich. I think the poker room order three or four. A homeless guy showed up exactly at break time every night. He snuck into the back entrance to the poker room and filled up on a couple of sandwiches that he stuffed into a plastic bag before he escaped out the side door.

Winning (or chopping) the Sahara tournament (either the 7pm or the 11pm one) became a badge of honor among my friends -- many of whom hold that dubious distinction. Shit, I'm still embarrassed that I couldn't final table that sucker once, let alone win it outright. The Sahara had my number. I just couldn't string together any run good in their tournaments.

After a while, the Sahara nightly tournament lost its luster among perpetually grumpy locals and it couldn't compete when the mid-Strip casinos expanded their poker rooms. Once the Venetian and Caesar's began their daily tournaments, they locked up the hard-to-please locals and it got increasingly hard for the Sahara's poker room to keep up. Same goes for the rest of the casino. The NASCAR shtick in a sluggish economy wasn't profitable enough anymore.


(photo by Flipchip)

I had not gambled at the impoverished Sahara in several years. I'm pretty sure the last time I played poker at the Sahara -- I went busto due to a vicious bad beat, oozed with negativity and was probably thrilled to death to leave that dump. Alas, never had any incentives to go back once I migrated from Las Vegas to Los Angeles. Since then, I spent next to no time hanging out in that demilitarized zone north of the Wynn and south of the Stratosphere, aside from the odd sojourn to Olympic Gardens.

My Sahara poker memories are few but Halloween 98 sticks out as one of my all-time favorite trips to Sin City. Those incriminating stories (many of which occurred inside the Sahara) were trimmed from the final draft of Lost Vegas, but I guarantee those hijinks will be included in the Phish book (as soon as get around to finishing that).

I have one last memory of the Sahara that I want to share. Luckily, the moment was captured forever on film by Hollywood. I'm talking about a scene from Leaving Las Vegas, when Elisabeth Shue's character did the nefarious "hooker limp" in front of the palatial lobby of the Sahara.

Appropriate tribute.

The ghosts of the Sahara limp into the dark of night. The Sahara is nevermore.